Solar Weather, Solar Flare

Space Weather

The term “space weather” refers to the variable conditions on the sun and in space that can influence the performance of technology we use on Earth.

Extreme space weather could potentially cause damage to critical infrastructure – especially the electric grid – highlighting the importance of being prepared.

Learn About Space Weather

In order to protect people and systems that might be at risk from space weather effects, we need to understand the causes of space weather.

The sun is the main source of space weather. Sudden bursts of plasma and magnetic field structures from the sun’s atmosphere called coronal mass ejections (CME) together with sudden bursts of radiation, or solar flares, all cause space weather effects here on Earth.

Space weather can produce electromagnetic fields that induce extreme currents in wires, disrupting power lines, and even causing wide-spread blackouts. Severe space weather also produces solar energetic particles, which can damage satellites used for commercial communications, global positioning, intelligence gathering, and weather forecasting.

The strongest geomagnetic storm on record is the Carrington Event of August-September 1859, named after the British astronomer Richard Carrington. During this event currents electrified telegraph lines, shocking technicians and setting their telegraph papers on fire; and Northern Lights (electrically charged particles from the sun that enter Earth’s atmosphere) were visible as far south as Cuba and Hawaii.

Another significant space weather event took place on March 13,1989; a powerful geomagnetic storm set off a major power blackout in Canada that left six million people without electricity for nine hours. According to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the flare disrupted electric power transmission from the Hydro Québec generating station and even melted some power transformers in New Jersey.

Predicting Space Weather

Space weather prediction services in the United States are provided primarily by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and the U.S. Air Force’s (USAF) Weather Agency (AFWA), which work closely together to address the needs of their civilian and military user communities. The SWPC draws on a variety of data sources, both space and ground-based, to provide forecasts, watches, warnings, alerts, and summaries as well as operational space weather products to civilian and commercial users.

Space Weather Scales

The NOAA Space Weather Scales report three categories of solar effects. These scales communicate current and future space weather conditions, and their possible effects on people and systems. Similar to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, the NOAA space weather scales correlate space weather events with their likely effects on technological systems. As shown in the table below, the scales describe the environmental disturbances for three event types: Geomagnetic Storms (G-scale), Solar Radiation Storms (S-scale), and Radio Blackouts (R-scale). The scales have numbered levels, analogous to hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes that convey severity.

NOTE: The vast majority of “5” level events will not cause catastrophic damages to the electric grid.  On average, the Earth is impacted by such storms about four times during every 11-year solar cycle, so many large storms have impacted the planet since the Carrington Storm with much less signification impact.

For more information visit NOAA Space Weather Scales.

Know the Terms

Watches are used for making long-lead predictions of geomagnetic activity.

Warnings are used to raise the public’s level of alertness based on an expectation that a space weather event is imminent.

Alerts indicate that the observed conditions, highlighted by the warnings, have crossed a preset threshold or that a space weather event has already started.

Solar flares are a common type of space weather.  On November 4, 2015 a solar flare disrupted radar at Sweden’s largest airport causing significant delays to flights around the country, according to the Swedish Civil Aviation Authority.  At 3:45 pm local time, a solar flare sent a huge electromagnetic field that interrupted flight and resulted in authorities closing the airspace in Sweden, creating delays throughout the country.

Solar flares project solar plasma, which consists of electrons, protons and alpha particles, at very high speed into space which can strike the Earth’s outer atmosphere and disrupt its magnetic field.

This phenomenon is responsible for the northern lights and also the kind of magnetic storms that can disrupt the operation of communications satellites.

In 2012, a solar super storm occurred that was the strongest in more than 150 years, yet went mostly unnoticed by most media because earth barely missed a catastrophic event.

Extreme solar storms pose a threat to all forms of high-technology.  They begin with an explosion–a “solar flare”—in the magnetic canopy of a sunspot.  X-rays and extreme UV radiation reach Earth at light speed, ionizing the upper layers of our atmosphere; side-effects of this “solar EMP” include radio blackouts and GPS navigation errors. Minutes to hours later, the energetic particles arrive.  Moving only slightly slower than light itself, electrons and protons accelerated by the blast can electrify satellites and damage their electronics. Then come the CMEs, billion-ton clouds of magnetized plasma that take a day or more to cross the Sun-Earth divide.  Analysts believe that a direct hit by an extreme CME such as the one that missed Earth in July 2012 could cause widespread power blackouts, disabling everything that plugs into a wall socket.  Most people wouldn’t even be able to flush their toilet because urban water supplies largely rely on electric pumps.

Before July 2012, when researchers talked about extreme solar storms their touchstone was the iconic Carrington Event of Sept. 1859, named after English astronomer Richard Carrington who actually saw the instigating flare with his own eyes.  In the days that followed his observation, a series of powerful CMEs hit Earth head-on with a potency not felt before or since.  Intense geomagnetic storms ignited Northern Lights as far south as Cuba and caused global telegraph lines to spark, setting fire to some telegraph offices and thus disabling the ‘Victorian Internet.”

A similar storm today could have a catastrophic effect. According to a study by the National Academy of Sciences, the total economic impact could exceed $2 trillion or 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina. Multi-ton transformers damaged by such a storm might take years to repair.

Resources

• Federal Emergency Management Agency
• NOAA Space Weather Scales
• NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

Listen to Local Officials

Learn about the emergency plans that have been established in your area by your state and local government. In any emergency, always listen to the instructions given by local emergency management officials.

Sources: FEMA, NOAA, NASA

Related articles:

What is an EMP?

Power Outages

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